Pro-Canada side struggles against separatists' money and messaging advantage

Though polling consistently shows the vast majority of Albertans would vote to remain in Canada if the referendum were held today—polling suggests support for separation caps at about a quarter of the province—the pro-Canada side faces a stark disadvantage in resources and visibility.

Separatists have raised three times the money of the federalist campaign. Online, they are dominating the conversation by as much as eight to one. Meanwhile, the pro-Canada movement remains fractured due to election finance rules that prevent collaboration between groups.

Stephen Carter, a political strategist who has worked with Naheed Nenshi, Alison Redford, and Danielle Smith, is distributing "Stay in Canada" lawn signs at Confederation Park and requiring supporters to take two signs, brochures, and buttons. Carter said he wants an outcome decisively in favour of staying. "If it's close, we deal with this forever. And that's the worst-case scenario," he said.

Federalist organizers say the window for persuasion is closing. Some pro-Canada supporters may stay home believing the outcome is certain—a turnout advantage separatists are banking on. "If separatists get 30 per cent of the vote, Alberta is forever changed," said Avnish Nanda, spokesperson for Our Alberta Advantage, a new pro-Canada campaign launched this week featuring tongue-in-cheek videos designed to drive voter turnout.

Thomas Lukaszuk has driven a maple leaf-emblazoned RV nearly 40,000 kilometres around the province over more than a year. Lead Not Leave, a team of academics and former politicians, functions as a pop-up think tank. The federal Conservative Party launched Conservatives for Canada to target their own supporters. Rachel Notley and Jason Kenney joined forces for a Canadian Chamber of Commerce campaign backing Canada. Jason Kenney argued that historically, separatist movement followers "couldn't get elected to dog catcher."

Each pro-Canada group has operated mostly independently. A Quebec referendum required both sides to more or less cooperate under a national committee structure—an option Alberta's rules prevent.