B.C. Conservatives lead NDP by 3 points with 3 weeks until provincial election, but voters remain unsettled
A Leger poll taken late September shows Conservatives at 39% and NDP at 36% among decided voters, with 57% disapproving of the early election call. Young voters are especially likely to switch.
Sources · Leger Polls
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British Columbia's October 24 provincial election remains fluid. A Leger poll conducted September 24-28 among 1,003 British Columbia residents shows the Conservatives leading the NDP among decided voters 39% to 36%, with Greens at 13%, OneBC at 5%, CentreBC at 5%, and another party or independent candidate at 2%.
Yet discontent runs deeper than the lead suggests. Fifty-seven per cent disapprove of Premier David Eby's decision to call a snap election, including 28% of NDP supporters and 57% of Conservative supporters. Only 28% approve. And 58% of British Columbians say the province is on the wrong track.
Voter loyalty is fragile. Twenty-eight per cent say they are likely to switch their vote, rising to 41% among residents aged 18-34. Among those wanting change, 66% say Conservative internal disagreements matter less than major issues facing the province, and 50% say voting out the NDP matters more than Conservative recent problems.
David Eby remains the preferred choice for premier at 39%, with Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson at 35%. Forty-two per cent of BC residents say the NDP should be re-elected. Of those, 19% say Eby and the NDP have done a good job governing and deserve another term, while 22% say the government has done a poor job but consider it the best choice.
Conservatives face credibility challenges: 57% are concerned some Conservative MLAs and candidates hold views they consider too extreme, and more than half express doubts about the credibility of Conservative current leadership. More than half say recent Conservative internal divisions make them less likely to vote Conservative.
Health care ranks first as the most important issue at 15%, followed by housing prices and affordability at 14% and the economy at 13%. In August 2024, 27% of BC residents identified housing affordability as the most important issue—a significant shift downward in concern. Housing remains especially important to younger British Columbians, while health care becomes more prominent among older residents. NDP voters emphasize health care; Conservatives emphasize economy and taxes; Green voters emphasize housing.
More than one-quarter of BC residents say they could still switch their vote, leaving the race genuinely open with three weeks remaining.
By the numbers
What were the Conservatives' and NDP's vote shares in the Leger poll?
The Conservatives led 39% to 36% among decided voters in the September 24–28 Leger poll of 1,003 British Columbia residents.
What percentage of British Columbians disapprove of the snap election call?
57% of British Columbians disapprove of Premier David Eby's decision to call an early election.
How likely are young voters to switch their vote?
41% of British Columbians aged 18–34 say they are likely to switch their vote, compared to 28% across the overall population.
What is the top issue for BC voters?
Health care ranks first at 15%, followed by housing prices and affordability at 14% and the economy at 13%.
