B.C. election tightens as Conservatives match NDP in final polling before vote

British Columbia's surprise provincial election has become a statistical toss-up, with the Conservatives now matching or slightly edging Premier David Eby's NDP in final polling.

Eby called the election September 22, just two days after Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay resigned after only four months in the role. Findlay was replaced the same day by Lorne Doerkson, a 58-year-old former small-town newspaper publisher and two-term MLA from the Interior whose public profile before his appointment was limited. The timing and the Opposition's leadership chaos gave the NDP apparent tactical advantage — but the Conservatives' fresh start appears to have reset voter perception.

Eby has governed for nine years, first under John Horgan (who formed a coalition with three Green MLAs in 2017) and then as Horgan's successor since 2022. His 2024 election gave the NDP 47 seats to the Conservatives' 44, with 2 Greens — a slim majority government with just a one-vote buffer. With two years remaining on that mandate, he called this election early. Eby later called the election call his "biggest regret" of the campaign, acknowledging public frustration. "People are very surprised and frustrated by the election call," he told Surrey Now-Leader. "I should have done a better job of letting them know how stalled out the legislature was."

Polster Greg Lyle, president of Innovative Research Group, assessed that the Opposition leadership change cut both ways: Findlay's resignation increased uncertainty for the NDP, but Doerkson's appointment made it harder for the NDP to tie the Conservatives to the same grievances voters held against his predecessor. "At that point, you just don't call it," Lyle told The Globe and Mail, noting Eby could have given the Opposition time to stabilize.

The stall in the legislature has been real. The NDP's 2024 campaign promise to mandate that landlords allow pets in purpose-built rentals was sacrificed to pass other legislation. A private member's bill called Xavier's Law — named after 12-year-old Xavier Rasul-Jankovics, killed by a car on Vancouver Island in 2025 — which would allow police to impose blanket 30-day driving prohibitions for drivers suspected of reckless acts, has not yet passed.

Two Conservative candidates have been dropped after the NDP highlighted past anti-Islamic and antisemitic statements. Campaign director Katy Merrifield also faced scrutiny over an anti-Islamic social-media post made in June, which she removed within hours and explained as misdirected anger over a British rape-gang inquiry; as a survivor herself, she said she had conflated extremism with an entire religion. Merrifield remained in her role.