BC election tightens to dead heat with voters still switching sides
A new Leger poll shows Conservatives leading NDP by just 2 points among decided voters in the October 24 BC election, with 26% of British Columbians saying they may still change their vote.
Sources · Leger Polls
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British Columbia's October 24 election has tightened into a statistical dead heat, with new polling showing the Conservatives holding a slim 2-point lead over the NDP among decided voters—but a quarter of the electorate still undecided about whether to switch sides.
According to Leger, Conservatives stand at 42% of decided voters and the NDP at 40%. Green Party support has dropped significantly from 13% in September to 9% in October—a statistically significant decline. The NDP has gained 4 points since September while Conservatives have gained 3 points.
Fifty-six per cent of BC residents say the province is headed in the wrong direction, while 34% say it's on the right track. Premier David Eby's approval has worsened in the past week—39% say their opinion of him has declined, while 13% say it has improved and 47% say it remains unchanged.
Voter volatility is particularly high among younger British Columbians: 34% of those aged 18-34 say they're likely to switch their vote, compared to 26% across the province overall. Among Green supporters, 37% say they may switch parties. Green support is strongest among younger voters at 16% of those 18-34, compared to just 6% of those 55 and older.
Regionally, the NDP leads on Vancouver Island (44% to 39%) and holds a narrow edge in Metro Vancouver (42% to 41%), but Conservatives lead decisively in the rest of the province at 45% to 33%. If smaller-party supporters' preferred candidates aren't running, 29% would shift to the NDP and 21% to the Conservatives.
All 93 BC ridings will report results beginning at 8 p.m. on October 24. In the 2024 election, the NDP won 47 seats and the Conservative Party 44.
What specific policies or events shifted 4 points of NDP support in a single month?
Among younger voters showing high volatility, what issues are driving the uncertainty?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
By the numbers
How do Conservatives and NDP compare in the latest BC election polling?
According to Leger, Conservatives lead among decided voters at 42% to the NDP's 40%—a 2-point margin in a race tightening toward a dead heat.
What share of British Columbians might still change their vote?
Twenty-six per cent of British Columbians say they may switch their vote, with volatility particularly high among those aged 18-34, of whom 34% say they're likely to switch.
How has Green Party support changed since September?
Green Party support dropped significantly from 13% in September to 9% in October—a statistically significant decline, though it remains strongest among younger voters at 16% of those aged 18-34.
How do voters view BC's direction?
Fifty-six per cent of BC residents say the province is headed in the wrong direction, while 34% say it's on the right track.
