Liberals reach 14-point poll lead over Conservatives as federal trade dispute reshapes political landscape
New Abacus Data survey shows Liberals at 47 per cent, Conservatives at 33 per cent, their largest gap since Mark Carney became Liberal leader.
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A new Abacus Data poll shows the federal Liberals with their largest lead since Mark Carney became leader, opening a 14-point gap over the Conservatives as voters rally around the government's handling of trade tensions with the United States.
If an election were held today, the poll found Liberals at 47 per cent, Conservatives at 33 per cent, NDP at 8 per cent, Bloc Québécois at 7 per cent, and Greens at 3 per cent. The Liberal lead has grown 4 points since the end of August, reflecting a dramatic shift in the political environment since U.S. trade negotiations collapsed.
The survey, conducted September 4 to 9 among 1,479 Canadian adults, shows Canadians have rallied behind the Prime Minister's decision to walk away from a U.S. trade agreement. The federal government has imposed counter-tariffs totalling nearly $25 billion on American imports, effective September 8, in response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports.
In Edmonton, Liberals lead with support compared to Conservatives. In Calgary, Conservatives hold a stronger advantage. Outside both major cities, Conservative support widens considerably.
Overall federal government approval stands at a multi-year high, up 3 points from the previous survey, while approval of the government's handling of the U.S. relationship reached 57 per cent. Mark Carney's personal net impression sits at plus-27, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's net impression is minus-13.
Concerns about Donald Trump now rank as a top political priority at 46 per cent, while the rising cost of living ranks highest. Healthcare ranks fourth at 33 per cent, followed by housing affordability at the same level. Canadians hold deeply negative views of Trump personally: 82 per cent have a negative impression, while only 10 per cent view him positively. The Liberals are favoured to deal with the Trump administration.
Optimism about Canada's direction has reached a multi-year high: 45 per cent believe the country is headed in the right direction, up from 43 per cent two weeks prior, while 41 per cent say it is headed in the wrong direction. The Liberals won three byelections on August 31 in Ontario, British Columbia and Quebec.
By the numbers
What were the Liberal and Conservative polling numbers in the Abacus Data survey?
The Liberals polled at 47 per cent and the Conservatives at 33 per cent, giving the Liberals a 14-point lead.
When were the counter-tariffs on American imports imposed?
Canada's counter-tariffs totalling nearly $25 billion on American imports became effective on September 8, 2026.
When was the poll conducted?
The Abacus Data survey was conducted from September 4 to 9, 2026, among 1,479 Canadian adults.
What is Mark Carney's personal net impression rating?
Mark Carney's personal net impression stands at plus-27, compared to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's minus-13.
