Liberals surge to 14-point lead over Conservatives as Trump tariffs reshape Canada's election
An Angus Reid poll shows Mark Carney's Liberals at 46% support versus Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives at 32%, with counter-tariffs announced September 8 reshaping voter priorities.
Sources · Angus Reid Institute
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The Liberal Party has opened a commanding lead over the Conservative Party as Canadians rally around Prime Minister Mark Carney's response to U.S. tariffs, according to a new Angus Reid Institute survey conducted September 2–7.
Liberal vote intention stands at 46 percent, compared to 32 percent for the Conservatives—a 14-point advantage. In July, the Liberals led by only 4 points. Carney's personal approval rating is 61 percent, nearly double Pierre Poilievre's 32 percent favourability.
The shift coincides with the escalation of trade tensions. The U.S. President Donald Trump signed proclamations imposing additional tariffs on a range of Canadian products. Canada announced counter-tariffs on September 8. As the tariff issue has risen in prominence, Carney's appeal has strengthened.
Within the Conservative Party, two-thirds of voters who supported the CPC in the last election (67 percent) say they remain satisfied with Poilievre's performance since the election. However, 28 percent say their expectations have not been met. The party is divided on direction: 58 percent of past Conservative voters say the party should maintain its current ideological approach, while half say they would accept "big changes" if doing so meant winning the next election.
Poilievre continues to face a significant gender gap. His favourability among women stands at 27 percent and has not exceeded 31 percent in four years of polling.
Cost of living and inflation remain Canadians' top concern across all regions. The tariff issue itself ranks second at 27 percent, followed by the broader economy at 24 percent and housing affordability at 21 percent. Health care also ranks among the top five.
Past Conservative voters prioritize different issues: 32 percent cite the economy broadly, 27 percent immigration, 25 percent taxes, and 25 percent government spending. Poilievre faced his own leadership review at the Conservative Party's national convention in Calgary on January 29–31, 2026, where party members voted to keep him as leader.
Will the Conservative Party make strategic changes to Poilievre's leadership or approach before the next election?
How will sustained trade tensions and tariffs affect voter sentiment if the conflict persists?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
By the numbers
What was the Liberal lead over the Conservatives in the Angus Reid poll?
The Liberal Party stood at 46 percent support versus 32 percent for the Conservatives, a 14-point lead, according to the Angus Reid Institute survey conducted September 2–7, 2026.
How much did the Liberal lead grow since July?
The Liberals' advantage over the Conservatives grew from 4 points in July to 14 points by the September 2–7, 2026 survey period.
What is Mark Carney's approval rating compared to Pierre Poilievre's?
Prime Minister Mark Carney's personal approval rating is 61 percent, while Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre's favourability stands at 32 percent.
When did Canada announce counter-tariffs?
Canada announced counter-tariffs on September 8, 2026, in response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian products.
What is the gender gap in Poilievre's favourability?
Pierre Poilievre's favourability among women is 27 percent and has not exceeded 31 percent in four years of polling.
