UCP support drops 8 points as Smith's popularity falls amid referendum divisions

Alberta's United Conservative Party has fallen to 41 per cent voter intention, a steep drop of 8 points since April, and is now tied with the NDP, according to a Janet Brown Opinion Research poll commissioned by CBC News.

The poll of 1,200 Albertans, conducted Sept. 8–21, shows the NDP climbing 5 points to 41 per cent. Support for other parties rose 6 points. Smith's personal approval fell 6 percentage points. The UCP's losses were sharpest outside Calgary and Edmonton, down 14 points, with Calgary itself showing a 10-point drop since April.

Janet Brown, the pollster, said the UCP faces a pincer: "She's trying to walk the middle of the road, between the moderate, business conservatives and the far-right populist base that's still angry over COVID restrictions. And she's getting hit by traffic on both sides of the road." The party is "having a struggle navigating this difficult situation that we're in right now. Having a controversial referendum, the premier taking one position on the referendum [and] also trying to advocate for the nine other questions," Brown added.

The UCP's Calgary losses are tied to voters backing the "remain" side on the separation question. Rural and smaller-city losses point to voters who would vote to separate. Notably, Albertans unwilling to vote UCP or NDP but unable to name an alternative party increased since April.

As HOC reported in September, Smith defended her government's referendum advertising as impartial despite the UCP president's acknowledgment that it tilts toward "remain." The party has enjoyed the longest post-election honeymoon since Ralph Klein's era in spring 2026.

Lisa Young, a political science professor at the University of Calgary, said the NDP numbers suggest competitive momentum. "It suggests that they're on a trajectory that might make them competitive in the election," she said. But with a year until the election, she noted that if the referendum is driving UCP defections, "the government will have an opportunity to try to win that support back" once the vote passes.