NDP wins Calgary-Shaw byelection as UCP blames vote split; Smith office faces criticism

Kyle Campbell, the NDP candidate, won the Calgary-Shaw byelection Monday with 7,461 votes, defeating UCP candidate Mike Derry by 582 votes. The seat, created in 1986 and held by conservatives since then except for one NDP win in 2015, marks the UCP's first-ever byelection loss in party history.

Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph finished third with 978 votes — the first time the Progressive Tory party fielded a candidate in a byelection led by Peter Guthrie, who has positioned the party as a true-conservative alternative to Smith's government.

Smith's office was quick to blame the loss on vote division. "A split of the conservative vote along with a low overall turnout were the primary reason for the byelection result," said Sam Blackett, the premier's spokesperson, in a statement Tuesday. "It's more important than ever that Alberta conservatives remain united to avoid an economically ruinous NDP government."

Guthrie rejected the characterization. "We do not have a conservative government, so you're not splitting anything," he said in an interview Tuesday. Guthrie argued the Progressive Tory did not siphon UCP votes because the UCP is "purely populist government," not a true conservative entity.

Conservative figures outside government also weighed in. Former UCP premier Jason Kenney said on X that "a vote to separate is a vote to help the NDP win the next provincial election, and for the Liberal Party of Canada to win far more Alberta seats." Ken Boessenkool, a conservative strategist and signatory of the 2001 Alberta firewall letter, called the loss "a welcome rebuke for distracting Albertans with a foolish, dangerous and undemocratic referendum." Michael Solberg, a former Stephen Harper staffer, wrote on social media that "the growing brand of rage-farming 'conservative' who supports separation and pushes conspiracy theories and fake narratives is UNELECTABLE anywhere. The people are never wrong."

Cory Morgan, a conservative commentator and leader of a third-party advertising outfit backing Alberta separation, said the results show Smith has angered her base. "What I see here is the result of Smith trying to play on both sides of the unity issue," Morgan said on X, adding that the results show Smith has prompted many to stay home for the byelection.

Campbell told media that constituents raised the separation referendum less often than expected during the campaign, and when they did, most voiced anti-separatist sentiments. "I've had the opportunity to speak with thousands of residents in the Calgary-Shaw riding. They told me about the pressure of rising costs of living and the bills that seem to be piling up, about their struggle to access health care and the concerns about whether they would receive care when they need it, and about their overcrowded schools," Campbell said.

A separation referendum is set for October 19.