Safety gap between crime data and resident fears shapes Toronto's mayoral race
While reported crime fell in 2024 and 2025, a new poll shows over 70% of Torontonians worry greatly about crime and safety—and it's reshaping how candidates campaign.
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Toronto residents report feeling unsafe at levels that don't match crime statistics showing improvement, and the gap is becoming central to the mayoral campaign.
A Mainstreet Research poll conducted September 14-17 among 1,000 Torontonians found that almost 70% said crime and public safety are somewhat, very, or extremely important in deciding their vote. This marks a rise from earlier this month, when 52% felt crime and safety were extremely or very important in the election.
The poll results come after high-profile incidents including a shooting at a Salsa festival on St. Clair Avenue in July and shootings at the U.S. Consulate in downtown Toronto in March and July. Police also released videos showing cars being stolen. These incidents appear to have shaped public perception despite broader crime trends.
The actual crime picture is more complex. In 2024, total incidents fell 3.6% year-over-year, auto thefts dropped 23%, and break-and-enters fell 10%, though five other crime categories increased. In 2025, assault fell 3%, auto theft dropped 23%, break-and-enters fell 11%, sexual violation crimes fell 11%, and homicide fell almost 50%. Theft over is the only category creeping up in 2025.
Quito Maggi, CEO of Mainstreet Research, said the disconnect between data and perception is driven partly by how incidents spread on social media. "There might be one incident on a subway, but you're going to see it from 18 different angles," Maggi said. He added that while the relative strength of candidates on the safety issue matters, "the ability to communicate it effectively to voters is also critical in impacting how Toronto residents will decide to vote." The race, he said, "remains too close to call as issues and perceptions impact voters."
Jeffrey Dvorkin, a former journalism professor at the University of Toronto, attributed the safety perception gap partly to media coverage. "News organizations are being stripped of their resources and that forces [them] — both print, broadcast and online — to concentrate on the low hanging fruit of local news which is weather, traffic, crime," Dvorkin said.
The facts
What did a Mainstreet Research poll find about Toronto voters' concerns?
A Mainstreet Research poll conducted September 14–17 among 1,000 Torontonians found that almost 70% said crime and public safety are somewhat, very, or extremely important in deciding their vote.
How did Toronto crime statistics change in 2025?
In 2025, assault fell 3%, auto theft dropped 23%, break-and-enters fell 11%, sexual violation crimes fell 11%, and homicide fell almost 50%. Theft over is the only category creeping up in 2025.
What recent incidents shaped public safety concerns in Toronto?
High-profile incidents included a shooting at a Salsa festival on St. Clair Avenue in July, shootings at the U.S. Consulate in downtown Toronto in March and July, and police-released videos showing cars being stolen.
