Toronto tops ranking for safety gap between crime data and what residents believe

Toronto has an 11-point gap between its official crime-severity ranking and how safe residents think the city is — the largest disconnect among 15 Canadian cities surveyed.

Liaison Strategies polled 1,500 Canadian adults Aug. 30-31 using random digit dialing, with a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. Fifty-seven percent of Toronto respondents said the city was "somewhat" or "very" unsafe, up from 52% in 2017. Only 12% said actual crime statistics shaped their perception.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said the gap signals a broader problem: "Toronto has a public safety reputation problem. That tells us that the Toronto number is being driven by a broader mix of news coverage, personal experience, word of mouth, and national image."

The numbers behind the perception tell a different story. The number of reported homicides in Toronto last year was the lowest since 1986. Major crime indicators including homicide reports, assault reports, and shooting reports have all declined since 2017.

Yet many Torontonians surveyed believed homicide had increased over the past year. Police Service Chief Myron Demkiw acknowledged the disconnect: after years of elevated crime rates, rebuilding trust takes time. Stephanie Sayer, Toronto police spokesperson, said lower numbers don't automatically translate to feeling safer. "After several years of higher crime, trust and confidence take time to rebuild. That's why visibility matters."

Mayor Olivia Chow said at a news conference Thursday the city is investing in faster 911 response times and hiring more first responders. "People in our city deserve to feel safe, and I understand that when you see and hear different messages, it can cause anxiety."

Ottawa, perceived as the safest city in the survey, had 75% of respondents viewing it as safe.