Toronto police data shows shootings at lowest point in five years
Despite deadly festival violence last week, preliminary data suggests the city's shooting rate has declined compared to the same period in previous years.
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Toronto's shooting rate has reached its lowest point in five years, according to preliminary police data — a counterpoint to fears of rising gun violence sparked by the deadly Salsa on St. Clair festival shooting last week.
From January 1 to July 12 this year, Toronto police recorded 38 shootings. That's fewer than the same time period in each of the past four years, preliminary data analyzed by CBC News suggests. But shooting deaths this year are higher than last year for the same period — a shift that police attribute partly to timing rather than trend.
Three of this year's shooting deaths occurred over one weekend alone, including two at the Salsa on St. Clair festival and one in North York on July 12. "As shooting deaths are relatively infrequent events, each incident represents a substantial proportion of the total," Toronto police spokesperson Nadine Ramadan said Thursday. "As three of these deaths occurred over this past weekend alone, those incidents have had a significant impact on this metric."
Firearm violence typically peaks between July and September, Ramadan added, so seasonal trends should be factored into the year-to-date numbers. Shootings remain the leading cause of homicides in the city — of the 20 homicides recorded so far this year, 14 were shooting deaths.
Jooyoung Lee, an associate professor of sociology at the University of Toronto who studies gun violence impacts, said the data reflects a longer historical decline. "If you take an even longer, historical view back to the 80s and 90s, you'll see that shootings are overall declining pretty steadily," he said Radio's Metro Morning on Wednesday.
The data doesn't erase public concern. In the days since the Salsa on St. Clair shooting, festival organizers have threatened to pull the event unless police and the city make concrete commitments to enhance safety. Toronto police Chief Myron Demkiw has called for federal legislative reform, proposing that any shooting in a public space — fatal or not — be treated as first-degree murder.
The facts
How many shootings did Toronto police record from January 1 to July 12, 2026?
Toronto police recorded 38 shootings from January 1 to July 12, 2026, fewer than the same period in each of the past four years.
How many homicides in Toronto this year were caused by shootings?
Of the 20 homicides recorded in Toronto so far in 2026, 14 were shooting deaths.
When does firearm violence typically peak in Toronto?
Firearm violence typically peaks in Toronto between July and September.
