Toronto mayoral race tightens with less than six weeks until election
A new Mainstreet Research poll shows Olivia Chow's lead narrowing significantly, with crime and safety dominating voters' concerns as they head into October 26.
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Toronto's mayoral race has tightened considerably, with Mayor Olivia Chow's lead shrinking in the final stretch before the October 26 election.
A Mainstreet Research poll conducted September 14-17, 2026 surveyed 1,000 Torontonians and found Chow at 38.1% support, followed by Councillor Brad Bradford at 31.4%. Former Conservative MP Chris Alexander trails at 8%. The margin of error is ±3.1%.
Crucially, 13.5% of voters said they might change their minds before election day — enough to shift the race considerably. "This race remains too close to call as issues and perceptions impact voters," said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research.
Crime and safety dominate the election. A striking 51.8% of respondents said crime and safety would be "either extremely or very important" when deciding how to vote.
The shift reflects growing public concern. The poll found 62.5% felt crime has increased in the past two years. When asked where they're most concerned about safety, 20.7% cited the downtown core, 19.9% the TTC, and 17.9% their own neighbourhood.
Maggi underscored the stakes: "The importance of this issue cannot be overstated on the outcome of this election."
The three frontrunners held their first full mayoral debate earlier in the week preceding the poll release, where Bradford and Alexander both hammered Chow on public safety, TTC disorder, and her property-tax record — which has climbed more than 18% in one term.
Why has public perception of crime increased when police data show crime is actually down?
What specific public safety measures are the three leading candidates proposing?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
The facts
What were Olivia Chow's support numbers in the latest poll?
The Mainstreet Research poll conducted September 14–17, 2026 found Mayor Olivia Chow at 38.1% support, with a margin of error of ±3.1%.
How important is crime and safety to Toronto voters in this election?
51.8% of respondents said crime and safety would be either extremely or very important when deciding how to vote.
What percentage of Toronto voters say crime has increased in the past two years?
62.5% of respondents felt crime has increased over the past two years.
