Chow holds 6-point lead over Bradford in Toronto mayoral race
With less than a month until the Oct. 26 election, Olivia Chow leads at 38.1%, Brad Bradford at 32.2%, and 16% of voters remain undecided.
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Olivia Chow enters the final month of Toronto's mayoral race with a 6-percentage-point lead over rival Brad Bradford, according to a Mainstreet Research poll released Friday, October 2.
Chow holds 38.1% support compared to Bradford's 32.2%, with Chris Alexander at 7.2%. The poll, conducted September 28 and 29, surveyed 1,000 Toronto adults through interactive voice response on landlines and cell phones. The margin of error is 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
But the race remains far from settled. Sixteen per cent of respondents said they remain undecided, and another 14% said they might change their minds on how to vote. In a head-to-head matchup between Chow and Bradford, Chow leads 47% to 41%, with 12% undecided. "The race remains Olivia Chow's to lose," said Quito Maggi, president and CEO of Mainstreet Research, in a statement.
A previous Mainstreet survey conducted September 14 and 17 showed Chow at 38.8%, Bradford at 31.4%, and Alexander at 8%, suggesting movement has been minimal over two weeks.
Affordability is dominating voters' concerns: 78% of respondents said affordability and cost of living will play an important role in how they vote. Forty-four per cent called it "extremely important" and 34% said "very important." Housing costs — rent and mortgage payments — topped the list as the biggest affordability concern for 35% of voters, while 26% cited groceries and everyday expenses. About three quarters said Toronto has become "much less affordable" or "somewhat less affordable" over the past two years.
With 53 candidates running for mayor, the election takes place October 26.
What share of undecided voters do Chow and Bradford believe they can still reach in the final month?
Has support shifted within any demographic group since mid-September?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
The facts
Who is leading in the Toronto mayoral race?
Olivia Chow leads with 38.1% support, ahead of Brad Bradford at 32.2%, according to a Mainstreet Research poll released October 2, 2026.
When is the Toronto mayoral election?
The election takes place on October 26, 2026.
What issue matters most to Toronto voters?
Affordability and cost of living dominate voters' concerns, with 78% saying it will play an important role in how they vote. Housing costs—rent and mortgage payments—are the top affordability concern for 35% of voters.
How many people were surveyed in the poll?
The Mainstreet Research poll surveyed 1,000 Toronto adults through interactive voice response on landlines and cell phones.
