Chow holds 11-point lead over Bradford in latest Toronto mayoral poll
Liaison Strategies survey of 1,000 residents shows Chow at 50% support among decided voters, with Bradford trailing at 39%. Election is October 26.
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Olivia Chow holds a 50 to 39 per cent lead over Brad Bradford among decided and leaning voters, according to a Liaison Strategies poll released Wednesday morning. Chris Alexander trails at 10 per cent.
The poll surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents by phone September 4–5, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points. Chow's approval rating on her mayoral performance sits at 51 per cent, while 45 per cent disapprove. Nearly half of Toronto residents (47 per cent) say the city is heading in the right direction, while 48 per cent say it is heading the wrong way.
On transit, just under 40 per cent of TTC riders say they ride about as often as before the COVID-19 pandemic. Twenty-nine per cent ride less often, most citing changes to their school or work routine. Those who ride less frequently listed more frequent, reliable service and improved personal safety as the top factors that would encourage them back.
About one-third of respondents said taxes should be frozen or reduced even if it means cutting back on some city services. The three service areas residents said would justify a tax increase are affordable housing and homelessness services, public transit, and police, fire and paramedic services.
David Valantin, principal at Liaison Strategies, told other outlets that "the ballot has moved back toward a clearer Chow advantage." Bradford leads among men, but Chow leads women, downtown, North York, and Scarborough. Valantin said Bradford has a path to victory through strong support in Etobicoke, though his vote is "narrower" than Chow's.
Chow won a 2023 byelection after former mayor John Tory resigned. The mayoral election is set for October 26, with nomination deadline Friday.
The facts
What are the latest polling numbers for Toronto's mayoral race?
Olivia Chow leads at 50 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, Brad Bradford trails at 39 per cent, and Chris Alexander is at 10 per cent, according to a Liaison Strategies poll released Wednesday, September 9, 2026.
When is the Toronto mayoral election?
The mayoral election is set for October 26, 2026.
How many Toronto residents were surveyed in this poll?
Liaison Strategies surveyed 1,000 Toronto residents by phone on September 4–5, 2026, with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points.
What is Olivia Chow's approval rating as mayor?
Chow's approval rating on her mayoral performance is 51 per cent, while 45 per cent disapprove.
