Both B.C. parties get failing grade for fiscal plans, UBC economist says

Neither major B.C. party has presented a fiscally sound plan for dealing with the province's record deficit, according to Werner Antweiler, an economics professor at UBC's Sauder School of Business.

"Both parties get a failing grade from me for fiscal stewardship," Antweiler told the Vancouver Sun. "Those plans are fiscally unsound because they do not take fully into account that you need either heroic assumptions about economic growth to shrink the deficit, or you actually have to go and either raise revenue or cut expenditures."

The Conservatives released their platform on Sunday. They project a deficit of $10.8 billion in 2029-30 and plan to cut taxes for Canadians earning under $32,000 — a measure estimated to cost between $2.9 billion and $4 billion annually. They assume economic growth of 2.5 per cent in 2027, 2.8 per cent in 2028, and 3.2 per cent in 2029, projecting those higher growth rates will bring in $2.6 billion over three years.

Their proposed savings total $11.7 billion over four years: $7 billion from holding back contingencies and just over $2 billion from public-sector attrition. New operational spending comes to $1.08 billion over four years, with $350 million earmarked for seniors care and $205 million for health.

The NDP says the Conservative platform omits major costs: a temporary removal of provincial sales tax on Canadian liquor (estimated at $280 million), a new women and children's hospital in Surrey, and a Filipino cultural centre in Vancouver.

Antweiler's core criticism applies to both: they rely on growth projections that do not match current forecasts and avoid being transparent about the tax increases or spending cuts that would actually be required. "Something's got to give here and the true, honest answer to British Columbians is that there's going to be some pain-making adjustments," he said.