B.C. Conservatives' platform assumes 2.5% growth — more than double most forecasts
The BC Conservative platform projects 2.5% growth this year, far exceeding Bank of Canada's 0.7% forecast. Economists say the promised growth lacks a clear plan to achieve it.
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The BC Conservative platform, released Sunday, projects economic growth of 2.5% this year, 2.8% next year, and 3.2% in 2029. Those figures are substantially higher than what major forecasters predict.
The Bank of Canada projects 0.7% growth this year and 1.8% next year. The Royal Bank of Canada forecasts 0.8% growth this year and 1.5% next year. Ross Hickey, an associate professor of economics and management at UBC Okanagan, said his own "cautiously optimistic" forecast is 1% annual growth for the next three years — still roughly one percentage point below what the Conservatives assume.
Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson told the source Monday that the 1% difference is "completely achievable." He pointed to ending Clean BC regulations and reducing permitting times as drivers of growth, and cited $1.5 billion in private investment ready to commit if the government changes.
Hickey was skeptical of those mechanisms. "There is a lot of rhetoric about what's going to happen, that's going to lead to growth, but it's not a plan for how we are going to get more growth," he said. He also noted that BC's growth as an export economy depends largely on global economic performance: "When things are going great for the world economy, B.C. tends to do very well. When things are going poorly for the world economy, we tend to have a hard time."
The International Monetary Fund projects advanced economies will grow 2.1% this year, on average — also below the Conservative platform's assumptions.
The Conservative platform promises $1,000 annual income tax cuts, reduced contribution taxes and charges, and PST reductions on some business expenses. The party also commits to building a new Massey bridge and scrapping tunnel plans. Those commitments rest on the higher-growth scenario materializing through business confidence.
ADRIAN DIX, the BC NDP candidate and current energy minister, told the source the Conservative document is "packed with shell games, catastrophic errors, inflated growth projections, and of course, deep health-care cuts hidden in plain sight."
What does the Conservative platform identify as the mechanism to achieve growth 1-2 percentage points above forecasters' predictions?
If growth falls short of 2.5%, which promised programs would be cut or delayed?
Has the party modeled scenarios where global growth slows further than the IMF projects?
We'll update this story as answers emerge.
The facts
What mechanisms does Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson cite for achieving growth?
Doerkson pointed to ending Clean BC regulations and reducing permitting times as growth drivers, and cited $1.5 billion in private investment ready to commit if the government changes.
What does economist Ross Hickey say is missing from the Conservative growth plan?
Hickey said there is "a lot of rhetoric about what's going to happen, that's going to lead to growth, but it's not a plan for how we are going to get more growth."
