BC Conservatives polling at 44% with two days until provincial election

BC Conservatives are strengthening their grip on voter support ahead of Saturday's provincial election, with multiple pollsters showing the party ahead of the NDP as voting day approaches.

According to Leger's October 20-22 survey of decided voters, Conservatives stand at 44% versus the NDP's 39% — up from a 2-point Conservative lead in Leger's previous poll. Mainstreet Research and Angus Reid both report similar leads: Mainstreet shows Conservatives at 44% and NDP at 39%, while Angus Reid puts Conservatives at 46% and NDP at 43%. Innovative Research reports Conservatives at 43% and NDP at 38%. The 338Canada projection model predicts Conservatives will win 54 seats — a record for the party under leader Lorne Doerkson, compared to 44 seats in the last election under John Rustad.

Green Party support has also shifted. Leger measured Green support at 9% before the leaders' debate and 13% afterward, suggesting the debate moved voters. Among voters considering switching parties if their preferred candidate isn't fielded in their riding, 35% of those aged 35 and under and 36% of Green supporters say they'd change their vote. Of that group, 29% lean toward the NDP and 18% toward Conservatives. Among Green voters specifically weighing a switch, 34% would move to the NDP and 12% to Conservatives.

Premier David Eby's approval has deteriorated. Leger found 45% of voters say his opinion of him worsened in recent weeks, while only 12% say it improved — a 7-point drop from the previous week. By contrast, Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson's opinion improved for 24% of voters, with 22% saying it worsened. Steve Mossop, executive vice-president of Leger's Western Canada team, told the Vancouver Sun that Eby "just doesn't have any momentum, and he hasn't been able to create it from the beginning," while noting "a slow erosion of the NDP vote from the start of the campaign to the point where the Conservatives have a measurable lead."

Mossop characterized Doerkson as someone who "has established himself as a moderate. He's calm. He's collected. He's not saying anything outrageous. He's sticking to some general, broad themes: economy, jobs, taxes, and change." Eby, Mossop said, "has been continually throwing out the kind of radical solutions that alienate some parts of the voter group" — citing the vacancy tax as an example that "alienated the business community and developers" and the proposed income tax increase on earners over $200,000 in "the highest tax regime in the country."

As HighOnCity reported on October 16, advance voting for the B.C. election ran from October 16 through October 21, with polls open 8 a.m. to 8 p.m. each day. The general election is Saturday, October 24.