Ken Sim leads October mayoral race with 30 percent of decided vote in early poll

Vancouver Mayor Ken Sim is leading the race for re-election with 30 percent support among decided voters, but a crowded field and high undecided rate means the October 17 race remains fluid.

An early Research Co. poll found Sim holding 22 percent support among all likely voters. Vancouver Liberals candidate Kareem Allam and Green Party of Vancouver city councillor Pete Fry are tied for second at 14 percent each among all voters, followed by TEAM for a Livable Vancouver's former city councillor Colleen Hardwick at 10 percent. Vote Vancouver city councillor Rebecca Bligh received 5 percent, OneCity Vancouver's William Azaroff 4 percent, and COPE's Stephanie Allen 3 percent. When undecided voters are removed from the calculation, Sim leads with 30 percent, Allam and Fry are tied at 19 percent, and Hardwick holds 14 percent.

More than a quarter of likely voters (26 percent) remain undecided, with undecided rates notably higher among renters at 31 percent compared to 22 percent among homeowners. Sim's support differs significantly by housing status: among homeowners, 28 percent back him compared to 15 percent of renters. Among decided voters, Allam registered highest favourability as a challenger, selected by 20 percent as best positioned to defeat Sim, followed by Fry at 14 percent and Hardwick at 11 percent. However, 39 percent could not identify a candidate they view as most likely to defeat the incumbent.

Fry received the highest overall favourability rating at 45 percent, ahead of former mayor Kennedy Stewart at 40 percent and Sim at 39 percent. Hardwick received 36 percent favourability.

In the 2022 mayoral election, Sim won with 51 percent of votes cast and saw every A Better City candidate elected to council. In 2018, Kennedy Stewart won with roughly one-third of the vote as an independent candidate.