Alberta faces warmer, drier fall as El Niño patterns shift weather forecasts

Alberta's fall and early winter are shaping up to be warmer and drier than normal, according to a three-month forecast from Environment and Climate Change Canada released at the end of September.

The ECCC seasonal outlook, issued monthly to track meteorological trends, projects a 60–70% probability of above-normal temperatures for the Edmonton region between October and December 2026. Northern Alberta and the Rockies face an even higher probability — 70–80% — of above-normal warmth. Calgary also sits in the 60–70% range.

Meteorologist Brian Proctor with ECCC said that "warm weather we've been experiencing is expected to continue as we move further into October, and potentially further into the fall and winter."

The drier signal is stronger along the Rockies, where the forecast shows the most pronounced below-normal precipitation. Much of Alberta is expected to see below-normal rainfall and snowfall through the season. Proctor attributed the drier conditions partly to a developing "Super" El Niño pattern in the Pacific.

Most Albertans — including those in Edmonton, Calgary, Medicine Hat, Lethbridge, Lloydminster, Red Deer, Grande Prairie, High Level, and Peace River — face a 30–40% chance of near-normal temperatures. A 10–20% probability of temperatures near normal applies to Northern Alberta and the Rockies.

The outlook does not predict specific weather events like storms; it focuses on broad temperature and precipitation trends. Accuracy of ECCC's three-month forecasts varies, and the source does not detail historical performance of these projections.