Warmer November trend ahead for Calgary-to-Red Deer corridor as El Niño builds

Alberta's November starts chilly, with temperatures gradually warming through the month as a strong El Niño begins to take effect. Brian Proctor, a meteorologist with Environment and Climate Change Canada, said the seasonal forecast is still variable. "We're seeing quite a bit of variability in our seasonal forecast at this point in time as the month of November evolves," he said.

The first part of the month is expected to run below average, with temperatures returning to around normal for much of the province by the second week. Proctor said areas from Calgary up to Red Deer could stay above normal for the whole month, while the rest of the province looks largely normal. "We're hinting at maybe areas like Calgary up to Red Deer being above normal for the whole month, and the remainder of the province being pretty normal from a temperature point of view," he said.

By the third week, warmer-than-normal temperatures could spread across more of southern Alberta. The warming trend may become more noticeable in December as El Niño's influence grows. The average daily temperature in November is -1.7 C in Calgary and -3.5 C in Edmonton.

Much of the province is expected to stay relatively dry through November, though some areas could see more precipitation early in the month. Areas northeast of Edmonton and along the foothills have a better chance of above-normal precipitation in the first week. The far north is expected to stay particularly dry, and conditions become increasingly dry across the province as the month goes on.

Proctor said El Niño's most significant impacts are not expected in November. "Really, what's happening is El Niño and its impacts are coming towards us, but we have to really get further into the winter before we can really see the significant impacts."