New ward-by-ward polls show tight Toronto council races in final days before election

New polling from Mainstreet Research and Forum Research reveals competitive ward-level races across Toronto ahead of Monday's election, with several incumbents facing serious challenges.

In Parkdale-High Park, Mainstreet found Nadia Guerrera leading with 35.2 per cent support, followed by Diana Chan McNally at 29.2 per cent and Adam Pham at 15.5 per cent. A separate Forum Research poll for the same ward showed Guerrera ahead at 32 per cent, with Chan McNally at 29 per cent, Vanessa Raponi at 17 per cent and Debbie King at 16 per cent. The ward has emerged as a flashpoint over a city plan to revamp streets and limit car access to Toronto's High Park, dividing candidates.

In Spadina-Fort York, incumbent Councillor and Deputy Mayor Ausma Malik leads significantly with 43.2 per cent support in Mainstreet's survey, ahead of Ian Cunningham at 37.7 per cent and Paul Nash at 9.2 per cent.

Scarborough-Rouge Park shows a tighter contest. Shawn Allen leads with 37.7 per cent in Mainstreet, while incumbent Councillor Neethan Shan follows at 28.5 per cent and Zakir Patel trails at 12.9 per cent.

Forum Research surveyed seven wards — Beaches-East York, York South-Weston, Parkdale-High Park, Toronto-Danforth, Scarborough Southwest, Toronto Centre and Scarborough North. In Beaches-East York, former MP Nate Erskine-Smith leads with 32 per cent, followed by Natalie Johnson at 26 per cent, James Dann at 22 per cent and Jennie Worden at 16 per cent.

Mainstreet surveyed 894 Toronto residents aged 18 and older from Oct. 14-16 using interactive voice response by landline and cellphone. The Parkdale-High Park subsample of 262 respondents carries a margin of error of ±6.1 percentage points at the 95 per cent confidence level. Forum Research surveyed a random sample of 1,000 residents using IVR technology on Oct. 19-20.