B.C. winter forecast calls for record-mild conditions as strong El Niño peaks

B.C. is headed for a record-breaking mild winter, according to Environment Canada. Forecasters predict warmer-than-average conditions across the coast with a high chance of temperatures 1.5 to 2.5°C above the baseline average, coupled with less snow than normal. At lower elevations, precipitation that typically falls as snow may arrive as rain instead.

The driver is an exceptionally strong El Niño, predicted to peak at the end of 2026 and decay through spring. Environment Canada meteorologist Nathan Gillett said: "It's going to be warmer than average across the country. That's particularly the case on the coast of B.C.; there's a high chance of it being mild here this winter." That El Niño is forecast to be stronger than the 2023-24 El Niño, which produced Canada's warmest winter on record—temperatures averaged 5.2°C above baseline, surpassing the previous record from 2009-10 by about 1.1°C. B.C. experienced temperatures between 1.5 and 2.5°C above average that year; Central Canada recorded a 6.5°C gap.

Gillett cautioned that seasonal predictions are probabilistic forecasts, not precise predictions, and cold snaps remain possible anywhere in the country. The Weather Network's preliminary seasonal forecast predicts a winter that will "lean mild," with confidence in a mild December that could feel like an extension of fall. January and February are less certain. "The key question is whether El Niño remains dominant," the network said. "If it fades quickly enough, winter will attempt a comeback or stronger finish."

Last year, Vancouver experienced its second-warmest winter on record, and the lack of snow on B.C.'s South Coast delayed the start of ski season.