B.C. winter forecast calls for below-average snow as El Niño returns

B.C. is favoured to have below-average snowfall across much of the province this winter, according to an early seasonal outlook from OpenSnow, a U.S.-based weather forecasting company that specializes in snow reports and ski conditions.

The forecast reflects the return of a "super" El Niño — the same weather pattern that brought last winter's abnormally warm temperatures and shattered records. With El Niño underway, OpenSnow said warm temperatures and a "more southerly storm track" will push snow totals down for most of the province.

The picture varies by region. Whistler's mid-mountain elevation has a "close to a neutral signal during strong El Niño winters," OpenSnow noted, though the base area typically sees more rain than usual. The Okanagan resorts — Big White, Sun Peaks, and Silver Star — can "occasionally do okay relative to average," as southern storms sometimes bypass the Coast Range's typical rain shadow.

But skiers targeting the Powder Highway face steeper odds. Revelstoke, Kicking Horse, Whitewater, Red Mountain, and Fernie typically see below-average snowfall during El Niño winters. OpenSnow's month-by-month breakdown shows January with an above-average snow signal, while December and February are neutral, and November and March below-average.

OpenSnow acknowledged that winter outlooks carry "an inherent degree of uncertainty," given the many unpredictable atmospheric factors at play months ahead. The forecast company added a caveat: some El Niño seasons "buck the trend," and 2015-2016 saw near-to-above-average snowfall in parts of the province despite El Niño conditions.

Across Canada, the outlook is similarly warm. Below-normal snowfall and above-average temperatures are favoured in much of the country, though OpenSnow cautioned that "above-average" does not necessarily mean "well above normal" like the West experienced last season.